They have a near monopoly on cloud service genAI data center GPUs. They don’t make the semiconductors. They just hand the design for those chip to TSMC and then sell what TSMC makes for them. The vast majority of their revenue right now is coming from selling stuff to new genAI data centers, if those stop getting built, they loose 80% of their revenue. And their current valuation is based on an assumption of an order of magnitude of new such data centers being built year on year.
I think, that it’s very likely that demand for new such chips is liable to drop to 0 because the capacity of currently extant data center using their chips is already overbuilt for realistic demand. No one other than Nvidia is making money on these data centers, and there is no path to profitability.
They’re about a 2/3rds majority in the consumer and workstation market, and that’s not insignificant, but that’s also not a significant part of their revenue by this point, nor is it why their stock makes up a terrifying percentage of the S&P 500.
If their revenue returned to just being that, they’d basically cease to be a relevant company and their stock price would crater. It’s a decent business to be in, but, it’s not a infinite growth, line goes up forever, business to be in.