A human being from a Finland.

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Joined 9 days ago
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Cake day: September 14th, 2025

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  • I’d really like to read more about this. Nobody is telling how this regional train caught fire. There are mentions of a substation being burned, so did this train just end up stopping next to the substation and caught fire? Somebody on Supernova+ was saying:

    Там пожар прямо на ж/д на карте НАСА чуть севернеее Стародеревянской и Каневской

    So, they’re saying that a little bit nortwards of the train there’s a fire right next to the railway. That suggests this train rode into a fire that had ignited earlier. What is the precise location where this train was caught on this video?







  • I don’t think that’s really the case. The 700 000 soldiers will still wreak havoc if they return. They need to be absolutely clear heroes so that the people will accept the havoc, and they won’t be heroes if the Russia loses to anything, in any manner.

    I believe the only reason the Russia is doing this is that they believe they can make NATO break that way.
    But, it seems likely that the Article 4 discussions for Poland and Estonia will establish a procedure for behaving with further Russian incursions into NATO airspace. Once that’s in place and communicated to the Russia, we can react.

    And in all analysis of the Russia, keep this in mind: Putin has never used Internet and is refusing to ever use it. He only accepts information from trusted news sources and his personal aides, all of which are liars. He is extremely strongly out of the loop regarding what’s going on around the Russia, and makes weird assumptions. I don’t think it holds water that this could break NATO, but it is easy to see why Putin would think it will.


  • It’s good to keep in mind that Lukašenka tried to take over the Russian Federation in the end of 1990’s.
    That’s why it signed the very tight coöperation agreement. His idea was that Belarus and the Russia will become one state and its leader will be Aljaksand Lukašenka. Then KGB (FSB) managed to get Putin into power, thus blocking Lukašenka’s way to the power he had strived for.

    However, now the Union Agreement had been signed, and the Russia suddenly had much of the power over Belarus that Lukašenka had planned to have over the Russia. Putin is absolutely aware that Lukašenka had tried that scheme, and they are not really very close friends to each other. Putin hasn’t been able to get Lukašenka sacked, because any follower would have been likely to be democratic, so he has had to tolerate Lukašenka. Lukašenka has been dancing on a knife’s edge for the last 25 years, trying to keep the Russia from taking over Belarus the way he had planned a takeover. At the same time be nice enough to Putin that he’ll need you in power, and keep Belarus as independent from the Russia as possible.

    I see this merely as one thing among many where Belarus is trying to regulate the distance between itself and the Russia. This has never meant that it stops being tightly connected to the Russia, and I don’t think it means that this time, either.

    Lukašenka also sees that the Russia is about to lose a war. He also knows that he won’t live very long anymore. Once the Russia is gone, it might be best for Belarus to be allowed to move into democratic hands. And at that point it’s important that the relationship with the west has not been completely soured.







  • Basically, the end game is based on Putin being increasingly thoroughly out of the loop.

    Remember that his only sources of information are his aides and Russian television. (Not completely sure if he watches western TV as well, but I very strongly guess he doesn’t)

    The aides get fired if they bring news contradicting what they have told earlier. And earlier everyone who brought bad news was sacked, so every aide has been lying to Putin on everything.

    So, the end game Putin is striving for is that both Ukraine and the west grow so horrified of the degradation of civilians’ lives in Ukraine that they force Ukraine into what is essentially a surrender.

    And then the plan B… That’s awesome in its beauty: The few tens of thousands of Afghan war veterans returning to USSR caused a havoc. Back then USSR had twice the population compared to the Russia of today. And also, now the amount of soldiers that will return is 700 000. Per capita that makes closer to a 50-fold difference in the scale.

    While at the same time the federal coffers are empty.

    The carnage in the Russia after the veterans of this war have returned will be something previously unseen even in the Russia. While the war is making Russians’ lives worse, nothing compares to how they will be once their own soldiers return home. So, just pushing an inevitable defeat a day further into future means one day more life before the carnage begins.

    It’s like, you know you’re in for a very painful and slow death. Even if you know it’s going to come, every minute you can prolong its arrival is worth a fight.