I see what you’re saying, but I’m not sure that would be the case.

Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an oppressive invading country and I don’t know (emphasis on I don’t know) that they have more foreign fighters than Russia (mostly North Korea, but also Cuba, Africa, etc.).

I do know Ukraine has some foreign legions(?) with a significant number of Columbians and Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans from multiple countries, along with anti-Putin Russians and Belarusian forces.

Ukraine’s low numbers (my understanding of their numbers) could be due to financial and logistical (training and supplies/equipment) constraints though.

I would say it’s a good thing that Russian fighters are doing so for the money, because once the money dries up they will stop showing up.

I believe we are seeing two things recently. The first is a drop of financially motivated fighters from Russia (reasoning: drop in signing bonuses, ex. 3M to 400k in some oblasts). The second is a downward spiral of their economy (civilian industries cutting hours and 40%(?) of their oil refining capacity currently diminished), coupled with the emptying of their soverign fund (originally 150B, now less than 40B(?)).

To me it looks like they are running out of funds and financial motivated fighters.

That’s not to say they will run out of fighters. I believe they recently or are in the process of allowing their “active reserve” to be called up to serve in Ukraine. If I recall correctly, their “active reserve” was 2M personnel. The analysis I read (Institute of War?) was that Russia wouldn’t call them all at once, but do a rolling callup to sustain fighting and potentially release the mobilized soldiers from 2023(?). This would allow them to claim a “volunteer” only force and still have enough fighters while not paying high signup bonuses (potentially).

However, everyone who wanted to volunteer for “patriot” reasons has already done so at this point. They have or in the process of using up all their financially motivated options. Therefore, I expect their remaining “active reserve” will not be motivated and calling them up would increase unrest in Russia.

Will the unrest be enough to topple Putin? No idea. There seems to be quite a few factors pushing against him resently that could cause a coup/revolutionary moment. Gasoline shortage, massive inflation, economic downward spiral, Ukrainian drones being able to hit deep into Russia, Trump “possibly” helping Ukraine, consumer bank run on cash, etc.

If I had to guess, I would say it would happen around New Years time. My understanding is that New Years is a big celebration in Russian culture (equivalent to a combined Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one) and that Russians spend big on that holiday. So, I suspect, that if a popular uprising happens it will happen around then.

I see what your saying better now and agree interaction of variables is important.

I believe there is a graph that has number of drones and missiles fired by Russia and the Ukrainian interception rate of those missiles. My recollection is that the number of missiles fired varies quite a bit month to month, but that inception rate took a nose dive recently.

I don’t think Russian missile barrages are the cause of the interceptor hit rate change, but do not have any source to back that up.

In my view, that would either be due to the missile trajectory upgrade or if Ukraine ran out of interceptor missiles. I do not know if they are out of interceptor missiles or have changed their firing rate.

I forget my source (perhaps a recent Perun yt video), but the interception rate change is due to changes in Russian missile trajectory in the terminal phase.

Previously, Russian missiles followed an arc trajectory to hit their target and were comparatively easy to intercept because it’s path until reaching it’s target was predictable (an arc).

Now, Russian missiles follow an arc toward target A and then when they are over target B (real target) they enter a steep dive to hit target B.

Hopefully that was understandable and helpful.

Edit: changed potential source as a new Perun video came out today, and it’s not my source.