At the same time, The Economist does not see the prerequisites for a sudden collapse of Ukrainian defense, since this excludes the very nature of the fighting: the constant threat of drones makes it impossible to concentrate significant forces in one place. Even in the case of local success, it is simply impossible to turn it into a strategic breakthrough.
Another significant point that analysts drew attention to is the ratio of losses on both sides. There is much less data on Ukrainian losses than on russian ones. A more or less plausible estimate is provided by the website UALosses, which, based on public obituaries, counted 77,403 deaths among Ukrainian soldiers during the entire period of the full-scale war, as well as another 77,842 missing. At the same time, there has been a noticeable trend towards a decrease in the number of deaths over the past year: only 8,668 obituaries have been registered since last autumn.
I am of the opinion Putin is delaying the end of the war with the hopes that he will be able to make at least one major armored breakthrough to cement PR propaganda around. I think the recent actions of Putin around Tomahawks and also the recent widespread drone incursions into the airspace of European countries are part of a similar attempt as far as I see it for Putin to manufacture the media and narrative environment that he can start winding down the war in practice while on the face of it “ramping up the war” and facing down the great unified enemy of global capitalism or something.
Ukraine NEEDS to understand how awful of a PR failure the last several armored assaults have been for Russia, Ukraine successfully resisting them (which can absolutely still mean retreating slowly while incurring massive losses for Russia) not only throws the entire strategic calculus of Russian generals into question at the highest level (Russia clearly thought THIS was the moment to rapidly switch back to armored concentrated maneuver, and it clearly wasn’t…) it places the Russian military into an existential identity crisis. Right now Russia is PROVING it cannot conduct armored maneuver every time it tries it to and it ends up with catastrophic results.
Don’t fall for the easy narrative that this kind of warfare is dead because of drones, the truth is armored maneuver is important as ever for actually taking territory in war, it is just rapidly evolving.
People will remember this fact for decades and decades, this is not an advantageous position for Russia because it is so clearly an unsustainable high effort position for Russia and it still isn’t enough to break Ukrainian defenses. That is a damning result and it points directly to some of the points this article brings up well, Russia is not in a strong position right now, it is not in a sustainable one, don’t let the oppressive media narrative convince you Russia is because it is blatantly incorrect. Russia is proving to the world it has broken the back of its military, it is unfortunate Ukrainians have to suffer the burden of violently proving this to the world, but they are and the fact is becoming more and more indisputable every time Russia throws away massive amounts of lives and sophisticated heavy military equipment for nothing gained, not even a chance of it.
The impact of Ukraine deleting these massive armored assaults may not be immediately apparent, but I believe the nature of how Russia is being sold off to the rich of their allies to keep propping up the Russian war effort is in direct conversation with how powerful those allies perceive Russia to be militarily. These connections were always going to form in my opinion given the nature of geopolitics and war, but the difference here is that these connections are having to be made more and more not in the favor of Russia, and that has direct consequences on Ukraine’s security as well as global security.
From the perspective of resisting Russia I think this process is harder to see, it feels like wailing against an endless war machine that can keep throwing away lives forever and not even flinch, but consider the fact that it is unlikely that foreign powers will let Russia fall completely in a war like this, they will attempt to sustain the appearance of Russian strength in any way they can, but behind the scenes this appearance of strength is becoming more and more a failing marketing strategy for the elite of Russia selling off Russia piece by piece to whoever will help them fight this war.
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This seems to suggest Russia would defeat NATO if the US wasn’t in it. That seems laughable given the size of the European militaries (which is an actual modern, capable military). Russia struggled against Ukraine’s initially outdated military. Poland alone could likely hold them off.
It also assumes Trump would actually want to invade all these countries, which also seems somewhat unlikely. Dude is completely enamored with winning a Nobel peace prize. At worst he’ll have the CIA attempt regime changes in South America, but that’s far from a full-scale war.