Not only the U.S. grid is weak compared to China’s… Strategically China seems to be outpacing the U.S. on many fronts, being much more stringent and focused on long term goals than the chaotic U.S. at the moment. I really don’t like the idea of living in a world with China as the leading nation, but it increasingly seems like the most probable development in the mid to long run. And transition will likely not be smooth…
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A 600-word bullet point summary focusing on statistics, comparing China and the US’s energy infrastructure readiness for AI development.
- China views energy availability for AI development as a “solved problem,” unlike the US where it’s a major bottleneck.
- McKinsey projects a $6.7 trillion investment in new data center capacity globally (2025-2030) to meet AI’s energy demands.
- US data center development is limited by power grid stress; some companies build their own power plants. Ohio households face at least a $15/month electricity bill increase due to data centers.
- Goldman Sachs highlights AI’s power demand outpacing grid development cycles.
- China annually adds more electricity demand than Germany’s total annual consumption. One Chinese province matches India’s total electricity supply.
- China maintains an 80-100% reserve margin, meaning it has at least twice the needed capacity, allowing it to absorb AI data center demand.
- The US typically operates with a 15% reserve margin or less, leading to warnings about grid strain during peak demand.
- China’s energy planning is coordinated through long-term, technocratic policy, anticipating demand. The US relies heavily on private investment with shorter-term return expectations (3-5 years), unsuitable for long-term power projects (decade-long build and payoff).
- China directs state funding to strategic sectors, accepting some project failures to ensure capacity when needed. The US lacks this public financing for long-term energy projects.
- China’s pragmatic approach to renewables and coal use, focusing on efficiency and results, contrasts with the US’s politically charged debates.
- Without significant changes in US energy infrastructure funding and development, China’s lead will widen.
Everything China has us cooked in every sector
AFAIK in USA it is pretty common to build the power infra structure as part of the AI data-centers that need it.
This has already been pretty common for normal data-centers for years.
USA never really had good public service infra structure for it. While for instance in Denmark many companies build data-centers because Denmark both has good infrastructure, and also can supply data-centers with relatively cheap energy from renewable sources, without the company having to foot a giant bill to invest in that too.The American model is of course inferior, but it’s not like it doesn’t work at all, it just makes it more expensive.
On the other hand, in USA they can bribe White House, and do almost whatever the fuck they want. That is NOT an option in China, where it can result in a literal death penalty for the CEO if tried!For some. But Alabama power has raised rates AGAIN to build another 2 gas plants because of data centers. My power bill has increased by 50% in the last 6 years.
OK so Alabama push the bill to consumers for expanding power to data centers in that situation. Meaning the American AI industry has absolutely nothing to be envious about China for in that situation. Which was kind of my point, contrary to the claims of the article.
I guess burning coal as fast as possible means energy is a “solved problem” for China?
Reading the article helps to see that they are going full renewable.
Even if AI demand in China grows so quickly renewable projects can’t keep pace, Fishman said, the country can tap idle coal plants to bridge the gap while building more sustainable sources.
China is far from full renewable.
Did I say “are full renewable”? No. I wrote something else with a different meaning.
You said it was their trajectory. It’s not. Renewables are a part of their plan, sure, but that coal graph isn’t turning around.
Your own graph shows the ratio of renewables to coal hugely shooting up in the last 4 years.
Yes, but do you think that rate is good enough given they are still growing coal at a massive rate?
Yes. As others in this thread have explained, they’re approaching peak coal and that line is not one that you can extrapolate upwards as a straight line into the future.
I also think it’s not reasonable to compare a developing/emerging economy with hugely increasing total energy requirements, with ones that already got their polluting growth phase out of the way in the 19th-20th centuries, especially when a very significant part of that coal is burned in the service of making consumer products for the latter. It’d be much more reasonable to compare them to India, which oh look, they are doing much better than in both current percentage and growth rate. Whilst it’s true that Africa is doing better in those graphs, they’re also not having nearly as much success in production or growth terms.
So overall, yeah it could be better on paper, but it’s very much treating perfect as the enemy of good and preaching at a country who built as much TWh solar&wind capacity just in the last 12 months of your graph alone, as the USA has over its entire lifetime.
(I was about to draw a few more conclusions from those graphs but noticed they’ve left out a bunch of other energy sources for no obvious reason, possibly mischief, so I can’t compare - the graphs imply that these regions are replacing coal with solar&wind, but without the data for total consumption including gas, nuclear, hydro etc we don’t actually know what the true situation is.)
Add data from this year.
From several sources, they passed peak carbon last year, and expect coal to peak this year or next and start declining.
Also consider during the time in those charts they went from a developing country to mostly developed with much higher standard of living. They achieved a century of economic progress in a couple decades while simultaneously rolling out renewable energy faster than anyone else
I am very skeptical of any article that boldly claims that China is on the rise and the US is in decline. We’ve been hearing about this decades. People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP. People think the US is worse only because the US is an open country. China’s isolation give it the illusion that it’s better, but in reality, it’s even worse. Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
Brother it sounds like you underestimate what industrializing the largest population on earth looks like. It’s not just happening, it’s kinda inevitable.
China leads the world in scientific publication, even when only taking into account reputable journals and high-impact publications. There’s no doubt in my mind the US will decline further with the current attacks on science and education, and anti-intellectualism in general.
The big difference that I see is that they investes in people for a long while now. They did what they can so people can get a decent education. That’s also the reason why they don’t allow kids to use tiktok and so on - it’s hindering the next generation’s ability to think. They know that you need many intelligent people to drive whatever other innovation you want to have later. That’s why they’re pulling ahead so fast while we are collapsing. I am not even living in the US, but even here the education system is crumbling.
The west has trapped itself in the thought of technology without people. The idea that few clever people can design perfect systems that drive everything for us. That we just need to support those few individuals to get maximum return. China is supporting the broad masses. It’s like creating a fertile soil.
Who knows what all the asterisks are causing in the future. But at the moment it’s just no comparison. We’ve gone backwards, while they’re so far ahead we barely see them.
Chinese infrastructure and manufacturing lead is real. You don’t need to believe any propaganda, just travel and observe.
The asterisks are not about their usecase but political.
Chinese infrastructure and manufacturing lead is real.
And if you ignore the theory of comparative advantage, not only is it real, but it also matters. Otherwise, not.
I also run a consistent payment deficit with my barber. Should that be corrected?
No need to discuss defecit. That’s a totally unrelated item. My statement was purely about their infra and manufacturing lead in multiple sectors.
Imagine you are a top student and some other student suddenly gets better marks than you in multiple subjects. You do need to introspect and see where you can improve (Or if you even care about those subjects).
If you don’t care about infra and manufacturing, no need to sweat
We think changes happen overnight but rise and fall of a power is typically a slowburn.
We heard the same about Japan.
Soon we’ll be hearing about how Nigeria is spending oil money and growing its manufacturing.
Wait till the U.S. finds out about Brazil and its ability to manufacturer.
When the war is over between Ukraine and Russia, you’ll have two more countries restarting non-military production.
South Africa is picking up everyday.
If Europe ever manages to dig a tunnel between Spain and Morocco the Iberian peninsula and N.Africa would transform.We’ve been hearing about this decades.
Yes, you’ve been hearind that for decades, just like climate change: if you wait for an abrupt treshold with a clear before/after cut , you’re going to wait for a while.
China has developed an advanced high speed trains network. You have no idea how much US looks backward on that.
China still opens coal burning power plants, jut also a very large number of renewable and nuclear power plants. They’re serious about electrification.
They took the lead in scientific publication.
US needs to put up tariffs to protect its car makers from being wiped out by Chinese ones. Western car makers rely more and more on Chinese batteries suppliers.
All the signs are there. You just need to ackowledge them.
People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP.
As compared to what? In the US, corruption is legal, it’s called campaign donation and SuperPAC. At this stage, elections pick which pack of oligarchs will rule: GOP donators or Dems donators.
If the system is so much better, where are the high speed trains, advanced power grid, decarbonation plan, school that can get high potentials to the top, decent healthcare system?
Where are the fruits of this less corrupt dysfunctional and incompetent system?
China’s isolation give it the illusion that it’s better, but in reality, it’s even worse.
Alother delusion from local US news. China is not that isolated, they have developed deep relations with a number of countries in Africa and middle east, and they’re a privileged trade partner with many more. Worse even: with the current US policy of tariffs, several countries that were reluctant to have deeper ties with China are pushed in their arms.
Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
Meaning what? Their high speed trains are absolutely working. In large cities, half of the cars in the street are electric cars, majority from domestic brands and a few Tesla. They have very advanced and very cheap mass transit networks.
As I was saying: it’s just like global warming: if you sit and wait claiming it’s not really happening and/or not that bad, you’re totally unprepared when disasters hit you.
The only thing I will agree with you here is their emonomy is not half as great as they want to claim. The estate market has been in a free fall in all but the big 4 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guandong, Shenzhen).
But if the US wants to be the first power of the rest of the 21st century world, they need to wake up!
This is the dawn of the new Chinese century. I have no doubt in 20 more years China will be in an even stronger position as the USA continues to decline.
We, the USA, could do all the stuff that would make us competitive. That would require more socialism, more taxing of billionaires, more spending in green energy, education, transportation, healthcare becoming affordable and an actual human right for all in our borders, a real plan to transition off fossil fuels and shore up our domestic energy production and electric grid.
Idk more than that of course but that’s the elevator pitch.
We won’t do it though because corrupt capitalism and the oligarchy.
Maybe we will if at some point enough of us are struggling but we’re pretty fat and have plenty of entertainment to distract us even if we are being fucked. So … Yeah … Desperately hoping I’m wrong about most of my predictions, devastated as I keep seeing them come true.
This is the dawn of the new Chinese century.
Betting on a totalitarian kleptocracy saving the world is as unwise as betting in the 1980s that already overworked Japanese wage slaves could be overworked even further.
I didn’t say they were going to save the world, no more than the USA did or any nation state turned empire.
I do think China will eclipse America when it comes to being in a position of strong global leadership and the hegemonic power on the world stage. The USA seems to be shirking our duties, reshaping and destroying our society’s moral fabric, racing towards worse and worse education results and hellbent on making sure our healthcare is broken and our people are fat and dumb.
It’s not a winning recipe, even with a military that can dominate.
Every country has its problems and its demons, China is no different and certainly their problems are complex and grand. As far as greater or lesser evils - I’d put the USA and China about on par for all the fucked up stuff we have done the past hundred years and keep doing now.
I’d love to at least visit China sometime - honestly there’s so much fascinating history and getting to see a different approach to community building and infrastructure planning would be neat.
The US is very much on the decline, and thanks to the poorly thought out One Child policy- China has also likely past it’s apex. But like the US, it too can cause a lot of damage during its downfall.
India, thanks to burgeoning population and rapid industrialisation is probably the most notable nation currently ‘on the rise’.
